Maplewood, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

426
FXUS63 KMPX 220450
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer days ahead with highs in the 40s and low 50s Sunday
  through Tuesday. Warm highs in the upper 30s and 40s continue
  midweek through Friday.

- A few chances for light rain/snow next week. Best chance
  currently is Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

With mostly clear skies across southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin, things are warming nicely this Friday afternoon.
While all locations are warmer than this time yesterday,
locations in western Minnesota have the largest gain with most
sites 15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Despite warmer air
temps, gusty winds are making it feel chilly with wind chills in
the teens. Saturday will provide a sneak peek of what is to come
as temperatures will be in the 30s with some 40s possible along
the Buffalo Ridge. Things will ramp up more on Sunday as a
thermal ridge moves a mass of warm air into the region from the
Pacific. As alluded to in our previous discussion, this airmass
will be drier given its source. Most of our snowpack is still
likely to melt away, but how quickly it does so will largely
impact hot warm things get. If the snow melts more quickly, we
could easily see multiple sites reach their first 50 degree day
of the year. If the snow sticks a little longer, anticipate
temperatures to max out slightly cooler. With this in mind, the
forecast calls for widespread temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal (normal highs are currently in the low 30s) Monday
and Tuesday ahead of what is our next target of opportunity in
terms of weather- makers.

Taking this target of opportunity with a grain of salt, NBM
PoPs continue to be 40% max as can be expected with low
certainty this far out. Prior to this, a few other disturbances
could squeeze Trace to a few hundredths of QPF Sunday and
Monday nights, but Wednesday`s signal is the strongest at this
time. The uncertainty with all three of these events can be seen
in several time periods of low (20-30%) PoPs through midweek.
Timing appears to be the biggest hindrance at this time. PoP
chances aside, P-Type could be something to keep an eye on as
the Monday/Tuesday timeframe will have above normal temperatures
during the day and right around 32 degrees at night. This will
likely come to fruition via a mix of rain and snow. We opted to
continue the removal of freezing rain mentions because overnight
lows will be relatively warm and are on the back end of a warm
up. So all in all, conditions should not be ripe for any sort of
ice accumulation taking into account the warmer temperatures
and light QPF setup. The bulk of the Wednesday system is
currently expected to be rain, and that is the one with the
highest QPF. For those looking for more snow, you`ll have to
keep waiting, but there are hints for a potential switch-up
come early March.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Clear sky to high cloud VFR through the period. Winds were gusty
earlier today, but have now calmed. Winds will pick up again
tomorrow with sustained gusts up around 10 knots. Winds should
remain from the southwest with only some shifts to more of a WSW
or SSW wind at times.

KMSP...Southwest winds will continue, but will be lighter and
provide less of a crosswind risk for the parallels.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming SW late.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...NDC